
This is my first full 1st round mock of 2008. It will also be my only one until after the Combine. For those of you new to the NFL draft scene, the NFL Scouting Combine, held in Indianapolis, is where selected college players are put through a huge battery of tests and interviews. Many players watch their stock sore or crash based on their Combine results. Those who have poor showings, usually invite NFL Scouts to their college for their Pro Day workout where they attempt to repair damage done in Indy. I guarantee my mock will change a few times before the NFL draft based on these workouts and also information that comes through (injuries, drug test results, etc). So here's my shot at predicting the unpredictable.
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1. Miami Dolphins
Chris Long, DE Virginia
After researching Dorsey, I'm starting to question whether or not he would make a good NT in a 3-4 D. He appears to be more of a penetrating DT that would dominate in a 4-3 scheme so I've went with Long as the top pick. He's the best 3-4 player in this draft and BP loves players that come from a football background.
2. St. Louis Rams
Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
I think my first top 10 pick mock draft had the Rams taking Jake Long at LT, but after seeing the depth in this draft at the tackle position and considering they pick so early in the second, I think they go for the best defensive player on the board...and it's not Dorsey. Bringing in a DT will allow the Rams to move last year's first round pick, Carriker back to the position he played in college which was DE. Ellis' stock has steadily climbed and he is now a legitimate top 5 pick. He will bring an immediate life to this defense with his exceptional interior pass rushing skills. He is also more of a it for a 3-4 defense which it's rumored DC Jim Haslett may want to switch to. Someone you may see climb to this stop is Vernon Gholston if he has a huge Combine. He can play DE in the 4-3 or OLB in the 3-4.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
With the rise of QBs such as Flacco and Henne and Woodson's stock dropping, I think the Falcons wait for round 2 to take their QB (Joe Flacco). The last time they took a QB over the consensus best RB was when they chose Vick over LT; I don't see them making that choice again. McFadden will sell seats immediately and help mend the PR nightmare that 2007 turned out to be. Matt Ryan is a possibility and probably a better choice since you're more likely to find a top RB later in the draft than a top QB, but I think they want a player the fans can get excited about now and that's rarely a rookie QB.
4. Oakland Raiders
Glenn Dorsey, DT L.S.U
The Raiders were hard pressed to stop the run last year and with the retirement of Warren Sapp, DL is the highest priority (with McFadden off the board). As to who's better, Dorsey or Ellis, it's really a toss up. They don't have to decide between the two with the choice the Rams make with the second overall pick. If they had to choose between the two, I think they still would go Dorsey since he's more of a pure 4-3 DT.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Jake Long, OT Michigan
This would be a case of a perfect scenario for the Chiefs. As much as Herm Edwards like to draft defense, I don't think he could pass up on the best tackle in the draft. The entire free world knows how bad KC's OL has been with the retirement of HOFers Will Shields and Willie Roaf and Long will help to return this OL to respectability.
6. New York Jets
Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio St.
As much as the Jets would like to see Chris Long slide this far, I think this is a better pick for the defense anyway. DE's in 3-4 schemes are DT/DE hybrids that don't rush the passer all the time. That job falls to the OLBs and if you don't have a rush from those guys, you're 3-4 will be a lot less effective. At 6'4" and 260-some pounds, Gholston has the potential to be this team's version of DeMarcus Ware.
7. New England Patriots
Keith Rivers, OLB USC
Facing the possible retirement of Teddy Bruschi and Junior Seau is what prompts this selection. I think Rivers has put himself in the position of being the best LB in the draft and the Pats can move Adalius Thomas inside (he can play any position) and let Rivers play outside. If Bruschi and/or Seau still play for the Pats next year, I still think this is the selection to solidify an aging position. CB is also a strong possibility with Samuel being a Free Agent this season.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
Steve McNair is on his last gimpy leg and Kyle Boller never turned the corner the Ravens hoped he would. Their defense is getting old, but I don't think they could pass up the top QB in the draft if he were to fall to #8. I think he'll be a very good pro and may end up playing his first year if he shows enough in minicamp.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Phillip Merling, DE Florida
I had Derrick Harvey here at one point, but I think Merling is a better DE against the run so I went with him. He can still get to the QB and the added bonus he brings to run support is what propels him into the top 10. Considering the Bengals are losing 4 LBers to FA, they may take Dan Connor and they'd definitely take Rivers if NE passed on him.
10. New Orleans Saints
Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy
New Orleans needs a lot of help on defense, but it all starts in the secondary where they were one of, if not the, worst in the league at passes over 20 yards allowed. McKelvin has surpassed Michael Jenkins as the drafts top CB. He has excellent cover skills has great recovery speed and a bonus for the Saints is he's also a top notch return man.
11. Buffalo Bills
Maclom Kelly, WR Oklahoma
The Bills starting WRs are all less than 6' tall and it's time to get a true red-zone threat. At 6'4" and nearly 220, Kelly would be a great compliment to the speedy Lee Evans. The Bills offense could surprise a lot of people with QB Trent Edwards gaining valuable experience last year, two dangerous WRs and Lynch.
12. Denver Broncos
Kenny Phillips, S Miami
More than anything, Denver would like Dorsey or Ellis as their rush D was one of the worst in the league. The only other high-end DT that could be a first rounder is Balmer from North Carolina, but I think 12 is just too high for him. If Denver can't trade up for one of the top two, and they can't trade down and get Balmer, I think they get the top safety in the draft. Lynch turns 37 fairly soon and they'll need an infusion of youth.
13. Carolina Panthers
Ryan Clady, OT Boise St.
I think Clady would be a top 5 pick in some drafts that have little depth in offensive line talent and he could go earlier than this. Carolina has both LT and RT going into FA and although I think they'll lock up Jordan Gross, I think they'll let Wharton go. Clady will step right in and this offense will not be hurt by Wharton's loss.
14. Chicago Bears
Brian Brohm, QB Louisville
There's little doubt that Grossman has played his last snap as a starter in Chicago and that leaves them with journeyman Brian Griese. Griese is solid, but has never been a franchise type QB so I think the Bears take the chance on Brohm. He is the second best QB in the draft, and considered the best by some. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but it is strong enough to still make all the throws and he has great football intelligence and pocket awareness and he's very accurate. The good news for both Brohm and the Bears is that with Griese on board, they won't have to rush him to start anytime soon and they can let him develop gradually.
15. Detroit Lions
Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
It's hard for me to believe the Lions are all the way down to this pick after being use to seeing them in the top 10 for so long. To the surprise of many outside of Jon Kitna, they had a pretty good season considering how bad their pass defense and offensive line was. I am really tempted to put Jeff Otah here, but I think Jenkins is the best player available that suits a position of great need. The Dre Bly trade was terrible for the Lions and now they need to do something to rebuild a terrible secondary.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
The Cardinals have had offensive line problems for a very long time and I think they use a first round pick on OT, just as they did last year. Otah will improve the pass blocking and run blocking for the Cards. The Arizona's coaching staff, coming from the Steelers, are all about having a dominant OL and running game. With that said, this pick could very easily be RB Jonathan Stewart, but I think the quality of RBs in the later rounds will push them to pick the best OLmen available and that's arguably Otah.
17. Minnesota Vikings
Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
The Vikings secondary received a lot of bad publicity, but the real issue the defense has is a lackluster pass rush. The Vikings are 50-50 at drafting DEs recently and I think they give it one more try with Harvey. He is an excellent pass rusher and his pressure on the QB will only cause more turnovers for this opportunistic defense. A better choice would be WR where there are many choices to pair with Sydney Rice, but Rice is a good example of why some teams wait to get a WR (and it appears Troy Williamson is also a good example of why teams may want to wait).
18. Houston Texans
Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
The Texans could go in a lot of different directions with this pick. They could grab an extremely talented RB like Jonathan Stewart or Rashard Mendenhall. They could also go OT where a lot of talent is still around. However, I think their biggest need is CB where they need someone to either team up with Dunta Robinson, or replace Robinson if he can't return from last year's injury. I think when they pick in the second, they'll have a better shot at quality OTs than they would at quality CBs and they could get a RB in the following rounds.
19. Philadelphia Eagles
Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
This pick could very easily be CB if one previously mentioned slips to here, but if not, I think they'll choose Chris Williams, a tackle they've been looking very closely at. The Eagles have made a habit of taking linemen in the early part of the draft and Williams is an incredible talent who will solidify a position that is aging rapidly. The Eagles do have Winston Justice; however, after he allowed Osi Umenyiora to rack up 6 sacks in one game, I have to wonder if they have lost confidence in him.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DeSean Jackson, WR California
The Bucs were a very surprising team this year. The defense played much better than anyone had anticipated and with the emergence of Ernest Graham, the offense ran well, but was unspectacular. If Jackson is still here when the Bucs are up, I can't see them thinking too hard about the decision. Jackson is a similar player to Ted Ginn Jr except he's a more polished WR and a better return man. Joey Galloway can't go forever and he'd be a great mentor to an up-and-coming speedster like Jackson. If Brohm falls this far, the decision TB has to make becomes a little tougher.
21. Washington Redskins
Limas Sweed, WR Texas
This pick may be at DE, but I think with the new, offensive minded HC, the skins will want to begin to get away from "the smurfs part deux". Enter the 6'5" Limas Sweed. Some have stated he's a bigger version of Detroit's Roy Williams and he could be long gone by this point if he has a great Combine. The only reason his stock has dropped is because he has a lingering wrist injury and questionable speed. If Campbell continues to grow as a QB and has a guy like this to go along with Chris Cooley, Santana Moss, and Randle El, the NFC East will continue to become the toughest division in football.
22. Dallas Cowboys
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee St.
This will seem like a reach and you probably won't see DRC this high in most mocks, but he is the next best CB in the draft and I believe after the Combine, you'll see his stock sore and it's very likely he'll be gone by this point. It has already been on a steady climb ever since his fantastic Senior Bowl week followed by an equally impressive showing in the game itself. The Cowboys take DRC hoping he can become a player as good as his cousin Antonio, whom they passed over for Bobby Carpenter.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Branden Albert, OG Virginia
Pittsburgh's biggest weakness appears to be their OL they have a guard and tackle leaving and their best chance to rebuild would be to start with Albert. His natural position is guard, but he has the physical tools and ability to play tackle. I think they pass on OT Sam Baker who is more of a fit for a zone-blocking team. They take the best guard knowing that the depth at tackle may allow them to get a quality guy in the second round.
24. Tennessee Titans
Mario Manningham, WR Michigan
I'm sure Vince Young is hoping his former teammate Sweed will be here, but I think his size will be too much for 23 other teams to pass up on. But, I think he'll be in luck and as the Titans finally give him a legitimate #1 WR target. Manningham will have a little trouble getting off the line if CBs jam him until he puts on some muscle mass (he's only listed at 178lbs right now), but he is a playmaker and that's something the Titans haven't had at WR in a long time.
25. Seattle Seahawks
Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
The Seahawks have some pressing needs at CB with the departure of Marcus Trufant, but they just would not be able to pass up a talent like Stewart if he somehow fell all this way. He's got a great size/speed combo (5'11", 230lbs, sub 4.5/40) and it's obvious that Shaun Alexander is not the RB he once was. If the Cards take him, the Seahawks go for RB Rashard Mendenhall. Maurice Morris is a good backup, but that's all he is. If they land Michael Turner in the offseason, they may take a TE like John Carlson, a Guard like Brandon Albert, the top WR on their board (I like Devin Thomas) or the top rated CB left on their board.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
Calais Campbell, DE Miami
The Jags have never had a great pass rush and DE Bobby McCray is leaving via FA so they need to make a move and get a replacement. As if their run D wasn't good enough, they draft Campbell who stands 6'8" and is 280 pounds. His stock has dropped this year, but he is an intriguing prospect at that size and he's the best DE left on the board.
27. San Diego Chargers
Reggie Smith, S/CB Oklahoma
The Chargers D was shaky at the start of 2007, but they really picked it up as the season went on. If they have any flaws on defense, it's at safety. I think they'll team Smith with last year's 2nd round pick Eric Weddle. OL is also a possibility, but this team has few holes so it can take BPA which makes them very unpredictable.
28. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
I think Dallas may either trade one of their two picks away for an impact veteran (Roy Williams (WR) and Larry Fitzgerald have both been rumored in such a trade) or they may trade down with a team that wants Rashard Mendenhall. However, it's just as likely they stay put and take Felix Jones to replace Julius Jones. Felix Jones would make a great compliment to Barber and supply the "lightning" (4.39/40) to his thunder. As a #2 in Arkansas, Jones averaged 8.7 yards a carry on 133 carries. Jones is also an All-American return man(29.6 yards per return), which is why I think they choose him over Mendenhall. Devin Thomas, WR (and great KR), is also a possibility, but I think Jerry Jones and his love for his alma mater Arkansas will bring in Felix.
29. San Francisco 49ers
Devin Thomas, WR Michigan St.
OC Mike Martz will not want to go into 2008 with the rag-tag WR bunch the Niners had last year so I think they'll go after the biggest playmaker left on the board. Thomas has good size and appears to have everything teams look for in a #1 WR. He's a bit unproven and this may be considered a reach over guys like James Hardy and Early Doucet, but I think when your offense is as bad as the Niners were last year, you go for the playmakers. He'll also provide a lot of punch to the return game and any yardage this team can get will mean a lot.
30. Green Bay Packers
Dan Connor, OLB Penn St.
The Packers had a tremendous year and their defense is the best it's been in a while. They may choose a CB since they have little depth behind their starters, but I think they take Connor who will team with Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk to form one of the best LBing corps in the NFL.
31. New York Giants
Patrick Lee, CB Auburn
Last year's first round selection, Aaron Ross, turned out to be a great addition for this defense and I think they will use this year's first round pick on another CB. Lee is rising quickly up draft boards and has the measurables teams look for in a CB. He has questions regarding durability and hands, but every prospect is going to have questions at this point in the first round. He has the potential to be a very good CB and that will just make this defense even scarier than it was as 2007 went on. Another CB rising up boards is Tracy Porter and he may be the pick depending on the Combine these two have.
Comments
The Eagles have looked to
The Eagles have looked to lineman in round 1 and while i haven't yet heard who they may be targeting, this isn't a bad idea with both Thomas and Runyan getting up there in years. You've obviously poured effort and time into this and i'm sure we'll be kicking this one around as we look towards the draft. Fantastic job, Dave!
Great analysis Bro! I don't
Great analysis Bro!
I don't have a clue about any of these players, mostly because Syracuse was so abysmally bad this past season. I didn't pay much attention to College Football until I needed something to watch on New Years Day.
Honestly, I like how you left many of these picks open ended but only to the point where you give an alternate selection or aselection that you felt that a particular team was hoping would drop to them but was unlkely to be there. You've really impressed me.
It will be fun to here your analysis continue throughout the offseason.
Thanks for the comments
Thanks for the comments gentlemen. This is the first full mock I've done and I must say, it's easier to pick them apart then to create them for sure, but it was fun speculating.
It'll be interesting to see how much different this will look (and it will look a lot different) in the coming weeks. This change with players all the time and guys will shoot up the board after the combine and others will fall.
Very nice work, Dave. You
Very nice work, Dave. You are extremely knowledgable about all of the top college prospects for 2008.
I don't know if there will be any takers, but I have to believe Parcells wants to trade that #1 pick....and then the dominoes may fall. (Miami has SO MANY needs!) You may not get many of these right simply because this draft might be very unpredictable. The Dolphins could draft any position...and Rams could go O-line or D-line. You never know what Atlanta is going to do...this is going to be interesting.
As for the Jets -- I agree that we will go with a pass rusher...and that Ohio State kid seems like a perfect fit. If Long is not available, I think you are spot-on with the Jets' choice at #6.
Great job...I look forward to your update after the combines...
Wow Dave... What a great
Wow Dave... What a great Job... Dang maybe ESPN will be calling, but it be hard to run down the big ducks Joe is giving you..
Anyway Fantastic Job, i really liked your analysis on each guy
thank you!!!
Thanks again for all the
Thanks again for all the comments. I think Jets is dead on when he says this will be a very unpredictable draft and that I may not get many of these picks right at all. When you do these mocks, you have to understand that you're going to be wrong about 90% of your picks, especially on mocks done before the combine and free agency. A lot will change for most, if not all, of these teams before the end of April. That's one of the reasons I love this time of year!!
Doesn't it seem every year
Doesn't it seem every year one guy falls farther them they are expected to aka Aaron Rogers,, Brady Quinn